The Prime Minister has lost his mojo. Recent polls have gone from bad to worse (though admittedly, a bit better) for the Liberal government. It wasn’t so long ago that Trudeau had a 16-point lead over Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, as the preferred choice for Prime Minister. Today, the difference is effectively nil.
Then there are the political brush fires that keep piling up on his doorstep. Questionable government-use of consultants, legislative climbdowns, and communication cock-ups. While these are typical ailments of any long-serving government, it’s safe to say these are impacting Trudeau’s appeal.
The rebuttal to that argument goes something like this. Voters are grumpy. The economy is wonky (lots of jobs but fears of a recession remain), the healthcare system is creaking, and COVID still lingers - who do you expect them to blame? And while the sugar rush of launching a broadside attack on Poilievre might feel good in the short-term, voters aren’t engaged enough to make it worth it over the long-term. Instead, the Prime Minister should focus on delivering against the supply and confidence agreement with the NDP, weather the storm for the next 6-12 months and possible recession, and see where things stand in a year’s time.
The problem is that view risks misreading the country’s current sentiment. Whether you take at face value that almost 70% of Canadians believe the country is ‘broken’, is besides the point (for the record, it isn’t broken). Sentiments borne out of grumpiness or anger can quickly take hold and stick. And once they’re set they become difficult to undo. To avoid this, one must act quickly and decisively.
Here, then, is some unsolicited (and likely unwanted) advice for the Prime Minister and his aides on how to get his mojo back.
First and foremost, Team Trudeau must re-configure Trudeau’s political base by broadening his coalition. In 2015, it was Canada’s middle class which swept him to power. And it’s fair to say Trudeau has delivered for them - over and over and over. But ‘middle class’ was always an ambiguous group, purposely so, and today it is splintering and disappearing, making it harder to reach politically.
To take advantage of Pierre Poilievre’s seeming inability to refrain from tacking hard right, Trudeau must make difficult and politically-risky decisions to attract ‘moderate middle’ voters. This will not be easy but the current environment is worth the risk of elevating the NDP. The platform is burning.
To do so, Trudeau should reverse his trick from 2015, where he outflanked the NDP, and commit to eliminating the deficit by 2025, this time outflanking the Conservatives. As it did then, the gamble aligns with the country’s mood and has the potential to bear the same result.
Second, Trudeau must draw a line under the current set of mini-scandals. To date, the Prime Minister has been too accommodating to mistake-prone Ministers suggesting a lack of leadership and control. A broad Cabinet shuffle to remove under-performing Ministers, usher out soon-to-be-retiring ones, and promote rising stars would be a powerful signal that he remains assuredly in charge.
MPs like Jennifer O’Connell, Soraya Martinez Ferrada, Mark Gerretsen, Greg Fergus, and Rachel Bendayan represent a new generation of savvy pols deserving promotion. The fact they all come from Ontario and Quebec - the two most important provinces electorally - is a bonus. When you’re in a political knife fight you need brawlers close by.
Finally, Trudeau has to show Canadians he still wants the job. That starts with a public announcement from the Prime Minister that he’s running in the next election. It’s followed by an acknowledgement that while there have been ups and down since 2015, he is now wiser and rejuvenated, relishing the fight ahead. And it is punctuated by more forcefully contrasting himself to his convoy-supporting, Bitcoin-boosting, Canada-bashing opponent. We’ve seen a bit of that but the time has come to let it rip.
While today’s political waters are choppy, the government’s supply and confidence agreement with the NDP affords the Prime Minister time to right the ship. But with the window for change closing, and his political survival on the line, it’s time for Trudeau to turn up the heat.